Shoralis Renting vs buying a home: decide with a 30-year projection
The monthly payment comparison misleads
Placing rent next to a mortgage installment is the most common — and most incomplete — comparison. Ownership carries dues, maintenance, property tax and insurance on top of the installment; renting carries only the rent.
The right question is not "which payment is smaller?" but "which branch leaves me with more net wealth after 30 years?" Only a long-term projection can answer that.
The opportunity cost of the down payment
The most overlooked line item is what the down payment could have done. Invested instead, it can cover part of your rent: at an 8% annual return a well-managed portfolio approaches 2x in a decade.
That is why the "keep renting and invest the down payment" branch belongs in your simulation. In most scenarios the buyer wins — but not all: high-return decades and short holding periods favor rent + invest.
Rising rent vs a fixed installment
In inflationary decades the rent is revised upward every year while a fixed-rate installment stands still. Over a 20-year horizon this gap widens in favor of ownership.
Variable-rate loans flip the risk: you win when rates fall and get hit harder than any rent hike when they rise. A three-scenario (optimistic / base / pessimistic) test exists precisely for this uncertainty.
The cost of mobility
If you may change cities within 5 years, owning is not an investment but an expense. Transaction costs (commission, closing, appraisal) typically eat 5-8% of the price — too much for a short holding to recover.
Rent buys flexibility, and that flexibility has a monetary value your plan should account for as an input.
Let the simulation decide
Open two alternative lives in Shoralis: one with a "Buy home" decision (down payment + mortgage), the other with rent plus a monthly investment of the same down payment. See on the timeline which branch reaches your goal first — and by how many months the pessimistic scenario delays it.
Your data stays on your device; no account is required to run the simulation.
Test this decision in the simulator
Run two lives side by side: with and without the decision. See the net-wealth gap in a projection of up to 30 years.
Open the simulator