Shoralis
How Shoralis computes projections
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Every figure you see in the simulator — and in the charts inside the guides — comes from the same monthly engine, with no hidden numbers between them. This page explains how the projection is built, which assumptions drive it, and where it deliberately stays simple.
The monthly loop
The engine advances one month at a time for up to 30 years: incomes and expenses are applied, the surplus flows into the savings pot and into your chosen assets, assets grow by their yearly rate divided into twelve, and liabilities amortize by standard annuity math.
One-time items (a bonus, a wedding, a down payment) fire in their exact month; recurring items repeat on their own schedule. A decision is therefore not a note — it is a set of concrete money movements the engine executes.
Three risk scenarios
Four key assumptions — inflation, salary growth, investment return and cash yield — are stored as triples: optimistic, base and pessimistic. The same life is replayed three times under three macro paths.
This is why a plan that only works in the base scenario is flagged: a projection you cannot survive in the pessimistic path is not a plan, it is a wish.
Nominal and real
Every balance is tracked nominally and deflated to today’s purchasing power. Under high inflation the nominal line can rise while the real line falls — the view that matters for planning is the real one.
Currencies and exchange rates
TRY, USD and EUR are first-class: each item carries its own currency, and the engine converts to a common base using the FX assumptions you can edit. A local-currency depreciation rate can be applied so FX-linked items track reality. Live rates are fetched silently when available; nothing is sent anywhere — your data stays on your device.
Decisions and branches
A decision template materializes into a plan: flows, assets, liabilities and modifications (ending an expense, scaling an income, paying off a loan). A branch copies a life at a chosen month, so two versions of your future diverge from the same past.
The guide charts use exactly this mechanism: two deterministic example profiles are simulated for 360 months in the base scenario and drawn side by side. The numbers are illustrative, not a forecast of any real market.
Defaults and limitations
Default assumptions (inflation, returns, FX) are editable inputs, not facts — they seed the model so it is usable on first open, and you are expected to replace them with your own view.
The model is deliberately simple: monthly granularity, no country-specific tax regimes, no randomized year sequences (scenarios are deterministic paths, not Monte Carlo), and no bond-by-bond tracking. It is a decision-comparison tool, not a portfolio accounting system — and it is not financial advice.